Multisectoral analysis of climate and land use change impacts on pollinators, plant diversity and crops yields
The overall objective of the MAPPY project is to study quantitatively feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the context of climate and land use changes. The project focuses on 5 case study areas: Eisenwurzen Nature Park (Austria), Wallonia (Belgium), Rhine-Main and Rhine-Rur areas (Germany), southwestern part (Netherlands), Cordoba Province (Spain). A set of complementary models will be assembled, iteratively, to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level, and to assess the potential impacts on pollinators communities, making it possible to refine crop models. Relevant measures for socio-economic impacts of these forecasts will be developed and evaluated with stakeholders.
Regional climate simulations at high resolution(3 km) are performed to investigate the climatic evolution in the studied regions until 2070. High resolution allows the simulations to better represent extreme events, which is important for reliable projections of crop yields into the future.
Scenarios of land use/land cover changes for the futureare constructed over all study areas. Possible changes in forest management are also investigated. Land use and forest management control the number and extent of suitable habitats for pollinators.
Niche-models will evaluate the change in the abundance and diversity of pollinatorsunder several scenarios of climate and land use changes. The potential impacts on pollinated crops will be assessed using upgraded crop models.
I am Louis François, Professor at the University of Liège and led principal investigator of MAPPY. My research expertise is on vegetation modelling, climate change and paleoclimates. The idea of MAPPY was a downscaling of current climate and ecosystem models towards significantly higher resolutions, to provide more useful climate change impact information to stakeholders and policy makers. The integration of less frequently modelled processes, such as land use dynamics and pollination, was also a challenge towards more comprehensive projections.
The MAPPY study is coordinated by the University of Liège (Belgium), with expertise on crop and forest ecosystem modelling. The following partners are involved in the consortium: University of Namur (Belgium) – land use change modelling; the Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden (Netherlands) – pollinator modelling; University of Utrecht (Netherlands) – socio-economic impacts; University of Kassel (Germany) – regional climate modelling; the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt (Germany) – forest ecosystem modelling; the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany) – crop modelling; the Institute of Sustainable Agriculture (IAS) of the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC, Spain) – fruit crop modelling; and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria) – socio-economic impacts. Subcontractor EcoRes, Brussels (Belgium), organizes the discussions and interactions with project stakeholders, as well as the dissemination of results towards potential end-users.
News & Events
26 September 2023
MAPPY Study on the impact of climate change on agricultural, forest ecosystems and society
Last June, the University of Liège revealed the results of the MAPPY Study, which identified the impact of climate change on agricultural and forest ecosystems…
Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
The ERA-NET Consortium AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation) aims to promote cross-boundary, cross-community research with the overall goal to improve coherence, integration and robustness of climate impact research and connect it to societal needs. To this effect, AXIS aims to overcome boundaries between science communities through inter- or transdisciplinary research projects.
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