AMOC in Focus

The AMOC Assessment Initiative was launched in 2025, conducted jointly by JPI Climate and JPI Oceans. The goal is to produce an Assessment Report summarizing the latest state of knowledge on AMOC, drawing on observational data, palaeo-records, model simulations, and expert judgement. The report, crafted by leading researchers from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the United Kingdom, aims to clarify scientific uncertainties, assess future trajectories (weakening, slowdown or collapse), and explore potential consequences for climate, sea-level rise, ecosystems, and human societies.

Through a rapid-response structure, the initiative bypassed the usual preparatory phase: a scoping meeting was held in January 2025, bringing together over 40 experts to define the scope, working groups and deliverables. The review will examine AMOC behaviour over different timescales, contrast methodological approaches, and contextualize findings in light of recent warming of sea-surface temperatures, changing ocean salinity, and possible tipping points.

By providing a balanced, transparent and up-to-date assessment, the initiative seeks to support evidence-based policy and foster informed public debate — enabling decision-makers to anticipate and prepare for a range of plausible climate futures.

The AMOC in Focus initiative is jointly done with JPI Oceans.

The AMOC in Focus initiative is supported by the MAGICA project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme.

(Cover Photo by Andreas Haimerl on Unsplash)