PACMEDY

PAlaeo-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics

Call 2015 with Belmont ForumClimate science

PACMEDY project uses annually-resolved paleo environmental records of climate variability over the past 6000 years from corals, mollusks, speleothems and tree rings, together with global climate-model simulations and high-resolution simulations of the Indian, Africa and South American monsoons. The goal is to provide a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and inter annual to multi decadal variability (IM). By linking modelling of past climates and future projections, the project assesses the credibility of these projections and the likelihood of extreme events at decadal time scales. An ultimate goal is the identification of paleo-constraints that can be used to assess the reliability of future monsoon evolution.

PACMEDY reconstructed climatic trendsand inter annual to multi decadal variability over the last 6000 years from pollen, lakes, ice cores, speleothems, tree rings, corals and shells.
PACMEDY providesan ensemble of simulations of the last 60000 years.
The project uses water isotopes, vegetation and tree ringsto compare model results with past climate records.
New analyses of the linkagesbetween the long term Indian, African and South American monsoon change and monsoon variability and extremes provide constraint on future climate projections are conducted.
A focus on the energy transferfrom high frequency climatic variability to the decadal/ multi decadal time scales highlights nonlinear resonance interactions.

About

PACMEDY assesses how well state-of-the-art climate models represent climate conditions outside the modern range. It will provide a set of new constraints on the realism of representation of tropical hydrologic budgets. It will deliver an improved understanding of monsoon dynamics and an assessment of the likelihood of extreme droughts and flood. Such assessments, at the very least, provide information that allows climate services to define the level of uncertainty inherent in any projections that are to be used for planning purposes. The project results will have direct relevance to policy-related advisory panels, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Convention on Global Biodiversity.

Prof Pascale Braconnot

LPI of the project

My name is Pascale Braconnot (PhD). I have 25-year expertise in climate modelling. My scientific activity ranges from coupled ocean atmosphere model development to the use of these models in different climatic contexts. My main scientific interests concern the role of insolation, ocean feedbacks and of the hydrological cycle in
past and future climate changes. Mediation toward different audience, as well as the development of climate services in France, is also part of my interests.

Project consortium

University of Reading
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Stockholm University
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
University of São Paulo
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
University College London
Institute Pierre Simon Laplace
Bordeaux Montaigne University
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat
Pierre et Marie Curie University
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
European Centre Research And Teaching In Geosciences De L'envi
Laboratoire de Planetologie et Geodynamique de Nantes

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PACMEDY brings together specialists in palaeo environmental data and in palaeo climate modeling, as well as scientists working on modern day climate dynamics and future projections from 4 countries in Europe (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden), India and Brazil. The leading institutions in each country are:
The French PACMEDY consortium gathers researchers specialized in oceans (sediment, corals, shell), ice or continent (lake, pollen and speleothem archives) and climate modeling to reconstruct the evolution of the tropical climate over the last 6000 years.
University of Reading coordinates 3 UK groups to reconstruct past climate variations, produce mid Holocene and last millennium simulations using the MetOffice model, and directly simulates tree-rings and other environmental records to improve model-data comparisons.
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coordinates a group across 3 German laboratories (MPI-M Hamburg, AWI Bremerhaven, HZG Geesthacht). They focus on simulations of the Holocene and the last millennium with the MPI-ESM model, and on understanding the role of the intertropical convergence zone in the global energetics and monsoon variability and teleconnections.
Stockholm University brings new results on the role of aerosols on the African monsoon and interannual variability, as well as on its teleconnection with ENSO and cyclones, using the EC-Earth model.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology provides expertise on monsoon variability and predictability and paleoclimate archives such as speleothem and tree-ring and high resolution regional simulations to document past variation and extremes in monsoon and assess monsoon changes.
University of São Paulo, contributes expertise on on tropical /extratropical interactions, with emphasis on the role of tropical heat sources. The Brasilian group brings expertise in oceanography and theoretical work on climate variability for the analyses of the South American monsoon and its teleconnections.

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Parent programme

Call 2015

Call for Climate Services Collaborative Research action on Climate Predictability and Inter-regional Linkages

Climate Services aim at providing more reliable climate information for the near future (months to decades) relevant for local and regional users. Within this broad context, variability of polar and tropical systems affects a large proportion of the world population. This call with the Belmont Forum aimed to contribute to the overall challenge of developing climate services with a focus on inter-regional linkages role in climate variability and predictability. Eight multi-national projects have been selected for funding through this call.

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