The potential of seasonal-to-decadal-scale inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions
Global surface temperature increased by around 1°C since 1900, largely because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Superposed on this warming trend were pronounced inter-decadal fluctuations, especially within the Arctic. Decadal-scale variability is also found in Eurasian winter temperature, Atlantic hurricane activity as well as African, Indian and East Asian Monsoon. The nature and interrelation of these fluctuations that are often of great societal and economical relevance, remains, however, unclear. InterDec brings together scientists from ten leading climate research institutions to deepen our understanding of mechanisms of decadal-to-interdecadal climate variability in different regions, their interrelations and resulting predictability potential of extreme weather and climate events.
Two periods of enhanced Arctic warmingwere observed during the 20th century: an Early Warming from 1910-1940 and a later warming since end of 1970s. We found that the Pacific variability accounts for 50% of the Early Arctic Warming. This result implies that a warmer Pacific Ocean in the following decades could accelerate the ongoing Arctic warming.
The impact of recent strong Arctic sea ice reductionon the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude climate is debated. The atmospheric response is found to account for nearly half of the cooling trend observed in wintertime central Eurasia, but likely to be underestimated in atmospheric model simulations.
Using a very large ensemble of climate simulations, we found that only 10% of the most extreme European summer temperature events at 2°C could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Knowing the factors driving climate variability is extremely valuable for improving and interpreting climate forecasts and climate change projections. Increased reliability of climate predictions is not only important to decision makers itself, but also helps
developing and implementing international climate and sustainability agreements. Natural variability is large and important, even for long-term future regional climate changes. Stakeholders need to be prepared for large, decadal scale and longer deviations from multi model mean future changes. The dependence of Tropical Pacific-North Atlantic teleconnections on background state has strong implications for subseasonal predictability in the North Atlantic European region. Understand this is valuable for multiple industries in society.
My name is Dr. Daniela Matei, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, I am the Lead Principal Investigator for the project. I am a climate scientist focusing on ocean’s role in the climate, interannual to decadal climate variability and predictability, near term climate predictions, teleconnections, and climate change impacts.
University of Reading
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
University of Tokyo
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
University of Bergen
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
Université du Québec à Montréal
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany – is leading the project. The institute’s main actions focus the role of Ural Blocking, Arctic sea ice loss and stratospheric processes in driving Northern Hemisphere extreme conditions in observations, coordinated sea-ice sensitivity experiments and very large ensemble of historical and climate change climate model simulations. The institute also focuses implications of polar-lower latitude linkages for climate predictions. University of Tokyo, Japan, is a partner in the project. It studies the impact of enhanced resolution on the realism of lower-latitude-Arctic linkages and extratropical air-sea interaction, in addition to dissemination of achieved predictive capacities information to relevant stakeholders. Also from Japan is the Niigata University. The university focus Stratospheric processes for Arctic-Mid-latitude-Tropics linkages in coordinated sea-ice sensitivity experiment results and their comparison with observations. The Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, mainly studies the impacts of Arctic warming and recent strong sea-ice reduction on Northern Hemisphere continental climate variability and extreme events. From Germany, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung GEOMAR, is involved. Their actions focus on Identifying elements of the observed climate variability that can be
explained by wind forcing in observations and pacemaker experiments; Interbasin linkages and Dissemination of achieved predictive capacities information to relevant stakeholders,
end-users and decision makers. The Norwegian Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, studies Arctic warming impact on Northern Hemisphere continental climate variability and extreme events in coordinated atmospheric sensitivity experiments. The University of Bergen, also from Norway, looks into the role of tropical and extratropical oceanic forcing for Artic and midlatitude variability during the 20th century in observations and wind-driven pacemaker experiments. University of Reading, UK, studies Tropical Arctic linkages involving sub-seasonal processes and implications for predictability in the North Atlantic European region. Main actions of the Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut, from Sweden, focus on the role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation in linking polar and lower latitudes and interbasin linkages in observations and climate models. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, from the UK, studies Tropical Arctic linkages involving sub-seasonal processes and implications for predictability in the North Atlantic European region.
We are interested in the processes that establish Earth’s climate and that cause it to change.
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Call for Climate Services Collaborative Research action on Climate Predictability and Inter-regional Linkages
Climate Services aim at providing more reliable climate information for the near future (months to decades) relevant for local and regional users. Within this broad context, variability of polar and tropical systems affects a large proportion of the world population. This call with the Belmont Forum aimed to contribute to the overall challenge of developing climate services with a focus on inter-regional linkages role in climate variability and predictability. Eight multi-national projects have been selected for funding through this call.
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