CO-MICC

Supporting risk assessment and adaptation at multiple spatial scales: CO-development of Methods to utilize uncertain multi-model based Information on freshwater-related hazards of Climate Change

ERA4CSClimate services

The research project aims to co-develop how global hydrologic modelling can be optimally used to support adaptation to climate change at various scales. This includes the provisioning of multi-model ensemble output on a webportal hosted at a UNESCO centre as well as the development of a handbook on providing and utilizing ensemble information. It is state-of-the-art to use a number of different global models when simulating future
projections. The range of results represents one component of the unavoidable uncertainty in our knowledge about future hazards. Optimal ways to provide and integrate uncertainty information in adaptation planning are explored with expert stakeholders.

In an iterative dialogue process of three workshop rounds, scientists and stakeholders learn from each other, which hydrological information is of value to end user risk assessment – and which is the optimal way to convey this information so that it is practically used by end user stakeholders around the world in local, trans-boundary and global climate change adaptation and mitigation planning.
Freely available web portalwith the resulting information
Handbook (freely available)with support for users on how to optimally utilize the provided information including uncertainty in their own strategic planning.

About

Regarding freshwater-related hazards, both the web portal and the handbook are expected to have major societal impacts as many local to regional participatory climate change risk assessment and adaptation processes will have to be done to enable a sustainable development in times of climate change. In addition, globally operating industries will be able to better manage their freshwater-related climate change risks either by directly using the information or through specialized consultant services that utilize the information. The provided global multi-model data is usable for assessing these hazards even where a detailed model already exists because risk assessment requires to account for the existing uncertainty of projections caused by the hydrologic modelling approach, which single model output cannot yield.

Petra Döll

Professor of hydrology and researcher at the Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt

My name is Petra Döll, I am the Lead-PI (Principle Investigator) of the Co-MICC project. My special interests, which are expressed in this project so explicitly, lie in the communication and the utilization of the – to a certain degree always – uncertain quantitative data in global hydrology. This includes the fact that uncertainty is not avoidable in a fundamental sense and, thus, should be “embraced” and integrated in adaptation planning. Therefore, my other interest, in co-development with end-users.

Project consortium

Goethe University Frankfurt
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Le Mans Université
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Kisters AG
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory
The International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change
Quantis

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The Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany (PI: Petra Döll), coordinates the project. Its main contribution to
CO MICC is two-fold, with hydrological modelling as well as being responsible for the co-development, stakeholder participation and transdisciplinary research methods.
The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), France (PI: Jan Polcher), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany (PI: Dieter Gerten), and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria (PI: Yoshihide Wada) are mainly contributing to the global hydrological modelling.
The University of Le Mans (UM), France (PI: Yamna Djellouli), contributes social scientific expertise to the codevelopment and stakeholder participation process with a focus on climate change impacts in Morroco, Algeria, Tunesia. Quantis, Germany (PI: Michael Spielmann) is responsible for the global stakeholder dialog focusing on life cycle analyses and water risk estimation.
The International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC), Germany (PI: Harald Köthe), is responsible for knowledge dissemination, contributing to the development of the web portal and hosting it. Kisters AG, Germany (PI: Michael Natschke), is responsible for the technical development of the web portal.

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Parent programme

ERA4CS

European Research Area for Climate Services

ERA-NET Cofund for Climate Services - This ERA-NET Consortium has been designed to boost the development of efficient Climate Services in Europe, by supporting research for developing better tools, methods and standards on how to produce, transfer, communicate and use reliable climate information to cope with current and future climate variability.

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