Updates from the LAMACLIMA project

1) Contributions by the LAMACLIMA consortium members

Members of the LAMACLIMA consortium have recently published 2 articles:

• Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement – Published December 2022 in Nature Communications

Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. This study shows that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Its model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.

• Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity – Published March 2023 in Earth’s Future

Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Changes in land cover and land management (LCLMC) alter temperature and humidity locally and remotely, thereby potentially affecting the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). For the first time, this study assesses the effects of cropland expansion, irrigation expansion, and afforestation on heat stress and labor capacity using multiple climate models. We found that land cover and land management changes lead to substantial variations of temperature, but the concomitant consequences on humidity could largely diminish the combined effects on moist heat. Temperature changes in response to cropland expansion and afforestation differ between day- and night-time and are inconsistent across the climate models. Overall, changes in land cover and management lead to non-negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low-latitude regions during the warmest seasons. Overall, how land cover and land management changes impact heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing land-use policies to ensure sustainable development.

2) Upcoming Events

• The LAMACLIMA consortium will convene for a final workshop in Brussels from April 17-19. Here they will discuss the final steps before the project wraps up in June.
• A final stakeholder webinar is planned for June. More details will be announced.

The overarching goal of the LAMACLIMA project is to advance the scientific and public understanding of the coupled effects between LCLM and climate, and to inform the elaboration of sustainable land-based adaptation and mitigation measures.