Shedding light on AMOC: JPI Climate and JPI Oceans launch Assessment Initiative 

Experts from nine European countries and Canada are teaming up to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system, with implications for climate, ecosystems, people, and the economy. 

Brussels — A new initiative brings together leading scientists from across Europe and Canada to review the research on the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), known by some as the Gulf Stream system of currents, and the likelihood, risks, and potential consequences of its weakening or collapse. In a coordinated and timely response to growing societal and political interest in the AMOC, JPI Climate and JPI Oceans have joined forces to launch an expert-driven assessment of the latest science on this critical component of the climate system, building on findings since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th assessment cycle in 2021. Through this initiative, the JPIs will provide up-to-date, policy-relevant insights as the topic is high on the scientific and public agenda. 

The AMOC plays a vital role in modulating climate, distributing heat and nutrients across the Atlantic Ocean. Recent studies have raised concern that the system may be approaching a tipping point, with far-reaching implications for weather patterns, sea levels, marine ecosystems, and socio-economic systems. 

In January 2025, over 40 scientific experts and research funders convened in Brussels and online for a high-level scoping meeting to outline the goals and structure of the assessment. The group agreed on the urgent need for an updated, in-depth assessment, building on, and going beyond, the latest findings from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. 

At the heart of the initiative is a scientific assessment report to address and navigate ongoing debate among researchers and provide a solid foundation for policy engagement and outreach. A provisional outline was developed during the meeting, consisting of six chapters and a Summary for Policymakers. The report will examine the current state of the AMOC, assess projections of future weakening and the potential for collapse, and explore associated ecological risks and human dimensions, including possible responses and solutions. 

The initiative has attracted strong international support, with participation from Belgium, Canada (through MEOPAR), Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, France, Norway, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The representatives from the participating countries form a Governing Council, which has appointed two internationally recognized scientists as co-chairs of the assessment:  

• Hans-Otto Pörtner, Alfred Wegener Institute (Germany) 
• Gerard McCarthy, Maynooth University (Ireland) 

While the formal launch is contingent upon final funding confirmations, the initiative is in an active preparatory phase. The implementation phase, expected to run for 12 months, will begin once the JPIs have established the writing team and chapter leads. A dedicated writing workshop will be hosted by Italy in late 2025, providing space for co-authors to collaborate on early drafts and foster cross-chapter cohesion. 

The initiative places strong emphasis on diversity and balance, ensuring broad disciplinary expertise and equitable geographical and gender representation across the author teams. This coordinated effort reflects the need for clear, authoritative, and timely scientific guidance on one of the most critical potential tipping points in the climate system. 

Contact for Media Inquiries:
[Thorsten Kiefer, JPI Oceans, thorsten.kiefer@jpi-oceans.eu]
[Petra Manderscheid, JPI Climate, petra.manderscheid@jpi-climate.belspo.be] 

About JPI Climate and JPI Oceans: 

JPI Climate and JPI Oceans are intergovernmental research and innovation platforms that aim to align national research priorities to address key challenges in climate and marine systems, enabling evidence-based policy and sustainable management of our planet’s resources.