AMOC at a Crossroads: Navigating uncertainty and risk through a fast-track, expert-driven Review

Recent research has raised serious concerns that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could be approaching a tipping point, with the potential for a significant weakening—or even collapse—of the overturning circulation. Such an event could lead to disruptions in weather patterns, rising sea levels, and profound ecological and socio-economic consequences.

Recognizing the urgency of the issue, JPI Climate and JPI Oceans have made the decision to launch a rapid-response action addressing the uncertainties, scientific debate and potential risks resulting from a weakening or collapse of the AMOC.

Experts from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Norway, UK, US and Canada convened in Brussels and online, on January 30th to discuss the scope of the initiative. During the meeting, Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred Wegener Institute, AWI) presented an initial concept paper outlining key scientific uncertainties, ongoing debates, and policy considerations. Experts emphasized the need for a comprehensive review report that would build upon the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, offering a more focused and updated analysis of AMOC.

The report should provide a thorough assessment of AMOC’s current state, stability, and potential tipping points using insights from palaeoceanographic records, observational data, and climate models. It will also explore the potential consequences of AMOC weakening, including shifts in global temperatures, sea-level rise, and biodiversity loss, alongside economic and societal impacts. Crucially, the report will include adaptation and mitigation strategies, policy recommendations, and governance approaches to support informed decision-making. The report should possess a clear, policy-relevant narrative to ensure the findings are accessible to a broad audience, including policymakers and the public.

The in-person attendees at the BELSPO office, Brussels.

Discussions also addressed timeline, funding and governance. In line with making this a rapid-response action, the final report is expected to finish within 18 months. The two JPIs are committed to ensuring that scientific knowledge is rapidly translated into actionable insights to inform climate policies at national and international levels.